I got spy puts, sh and sqqq at march 13, 2020 at 3:58pm during last Friday’s Trump Pump

Trump artificial stock pump today. So blatant and pointless as his lies about 1700 google engineers website for Covit19 test.Why do you need 1700 engineers to make 1 simple static page for a flowchart.

This one will probably be pretty bad since we’re (USA) is likely about to go lockdown mode (everyone home) in next 2-4 weeks. Ghost malls and cinemas. No sports, no entertainment, no travel, no shopping and no gambling. This is the heart of  USA economy. However, this recession likely will pass in 6-12 months as people fully recover from deadly beer flu.

Here’s an snippet of my email on Yesterday (march 13,2020) was the epic dump day -10%, today is the dead cat pump + 3%
I personally went hard shorting and buying puts today.

Here’s my plays to profit from upcoming downturn :

Home run put options : (High risk)  spy puts 220 april 17dis puts 60 may 15
Market ETF inverses buy: 
sh (spy short).
sqqq (3x leveraged short)
 
Stocks to Short (sell high buy low later): 
airlines:  BA UAL DAL
cruises:  RCL CCL
hotels:  MAR
the whole market:  spy vgt
housing:  z
I predict an insanely bloody Monday next week. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/13/politics/trump-stock-market-gains-signed-photo/index.html

SH: inverse the s&p 500 stock at normal leverage. aka short the market. Only hold this when you know the future’s going to be ugly. Buy this.

SQQQ: inverse the s&p 500 stock at 3x leverage. Normally dangerous to buy and hold this one if you’re comfortable with high risk. it moves 3 times faster than the inverse of the market. Buy this if you’re extra ballsy.

The great decline of 2020. Stocks to watch & buy in the bear market

March 9, 2020. Greatest drop in single day for last 10 years. -7% on s&p 500

This is just the start of the US stock panic today : March 9, 2020. I’d wait ~6 weeks before adding positions or whenever these big boys hit these prices I’d buy at.

Put these big boys on your priority buy list ~price I’d buy some at [] today’s price
msft ~ 130. [150] today
goog ~ 1100 [1215] today
amzn ~ 1600 [1800] today
nvda ~220 [245] today
shop ~ 400 [418] today
amd ~ 35 [43] today
now ~250 [292] today
aapl ~ 245 [266] today
adbe ~ 280 [305] today
V ~150 [171] today
MA ~ 240 [262] today

Just be aware these things corrections/recessions are going to last a long while, I assume 6-12 months to go. 

  1. So if you want get out on the 2nd quarter and take gains from last 12 years (assuming you were fully in stocks) it’s not terrible idea tomorrow: March 10,2020, the pump after the dump day to sell.
  2. Or just really hunker down prepare for at least -20% from the top (we’re at past -10%) for the next 6 months is going to be brutal. 

    I plan on buying more when all the lagging metrics get really bad or just sit it out until we’re in recovery mode and going back up and Coronavirus isn’t a thing anymore. 

Two Stocks going up during Corona-recession 2020

Teladoc Health, Inc. (TDOC) [135]
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/tdoc
Everyone’s going to hunker down in their homes while the coronavirus fear spreads.
Teledoc lets you make doctor visits and get prescriptions for drugs without going to the Doctor’s office.

Zoom Video (ZM) [113]
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/zm
Zoom video enables people to have video calls and work from home. Fairly recent ipo, their product is great though. This one’s expensive but worth high risk / reward. Zoom video has been flying high since china has all their people who can work from home working from home. United States is likely to do the same soon.

Safe Stocks / ETFs to hold during turbulent times

Run to Treasury bonds or gold when you really want to stay on the side lines.

Treasury bonds are basically US govt. “I owe you” money.

TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are a form of U.S. Treasury bond designed to help investors protect against inflation. These bonds are indexed to inflation, have U.S. government backing, and pay investors a fixed interest rate as the bond’s par value adjusts with the inflation rate.) ~3%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Treasury_security
https://www.thebalance.com/how-do-tips-work-417128

An ugly bloody week because of pandemic Coronavirus – Feb 25, 2020

SHY : iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/shy
lowest beta, barely ever moves, 2% dividend. fairly safe

SHV : iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/shv
Ultra short term united states treasury etf super safest.

BND: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares (BND)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/bnd
This one may be affected by corporate bonds, it’s extra cheap

TLT : iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/tlt
0.15% expense ratio, includes short and longer term treasury. Moves bit more with market

IAU : NYSEArca – Nasdaq Real Time Price. Currency in USD
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/iau
Gold ETF, sit on the sides until the chaos is over.
Not good for long term investment.

If the account is for your near retirement Father/Grandpa and risk must be taken off the table. Then go SHY or just Cash

Websites and Podcasts to keep up with Stock News

Daily news:

Yahoo Finance Market Minute https://pca.st/5ai0rfj5
Yahoo Finance Daily https://pca.st/MXVr
Robinhood Snacks https://pca.st/aZx8
Your money Briefing by WSJ https://pca.st/1HUvIQ
Market Foolery by Motley Fool . https://pca.st/NRFjZA
Industry Focus by Motley Fool  https://pca.st/nj6A
MarketPlace https://pca.st/apmmarket
Marketplace Tech https://pca.st/9tIS
Bloomberg Surveillance https://pca.st/f9wh

Weekly News: 
Alpha Trader https://pca.st/urzf49bq
Motley Fool Money https://pca.st/GTStwJ
Motley Fool Answers https://pca.st/motleyanswers
Planet Money :  https://pca.st/planetmoney
Rule Breaker Investing by Motley Fool https://pca.st/i6FE
Bloomberg Trillions : https://pca.st/733F

Longer Term Investing: 
Value Investing with Legends:  https://pca.st/R0P6
Invest like the Best : https://pca.st/mpbX
We Study Billionaires : https://pca.st/ShhY
Exchanges at Goldman Sachs https://pca.st/goldman
Chat with Traders  https://pca.st/jAp3

News sites: 
https://finance.yahoo.com/
http://money.cnn.com/
https://www.wsj.com/
https://atom.finance/welcome
https://snacks.robinhood.com/ (also in podcast form email version)

Forums:
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets  (forum)
https://stocktwits.com/


Chart sites:
https://www.tradingview.com/
http://finviz.com/map.ash

General Info:
https://www.investopedia.com/

My Original Post

The original email thread

This all started July 13, 2018. Hey mike/chlimix what stocks should I buy? Then I sent a giant email/newletter.

.

Dated July 13, 2018

Trade wars are meaningless to the U.S. economy where many of our corporations make money on services. The trade war is going make consumers pay more for various goods: cars, beer, tv’s. However, in my opinion the most important metrics are employment and corporations’ profit growth (both are healthy). Traders and investors initially over-reacted to trade war news in march 2018. It’s July 2018, corporate earnings are going to be good and traders realize the trade war is nothing in the grand scheme of things. 
So here’s my stock picks for 2018 mid year July. 

my new recent [buys]: 
Theme: technology cloud SaaS: [current price for reference]

Micron (MU) [56] undervalued, everything in this world needs RAM (cloud, cars, phones). supply isn’t met demand. PE of 8. 

Salesforce (CRM) [147] rock solid growth SaaS product. this should be long term buy and hold; I had some in 60’s about 2 yrs ago, recently I got some more.   

ZEN  [59]: Cloud based customer support as service,  zen desk is up fast and growing; they’re big customer of aws. All the numbers go up, except profit, classic growth tech stock.  

ADBE [258] crazy growth like salesforce. The SaaS cloud guys are making $$, you pay for adobe software subscriptions for everything now (photoshop, etc.)

STMP [271] (stamps.com) a solid company on financials, shipping and handling for small biz. (click, print, ship), You never think about it, solid tech company the down-low. 

Theme:  China is growth for risky tech stocks: 

AliBaba [190] (BABA) still major payment system of in china, mobile pay and ebay+amazon combined. baba’s not going away anytime soon. People are scared of the china trade war, make cheap stock buys. 

IQYi (IQ) [33], lots of room for growth, youtube/netflix of China. But crazy volatile ups and downs since it’s a recent ipo, don’t go too big on this risky stock. 

Theme :  sector rotations: Oil prices and consumer spending

ConocoPhillips (COP) [72] oil and oil services are back, world still needs oil and refined oil. OPEC wants high oil prices and US is sanctioning Iran’s oil exports.  

LULU [125]: nike and under armor are stagnant, but women love lulu lemon yoga pants , extremely profitable company. 


Theme:  mobile/E-payments of the future: Buy some of each and watch the next 5 years when everyone pays with their smart phones

MA [206] (mastercard) : solid everything and good growth, they collect tolls on every purchase.  

V [139], same as above, less room to grow, collects tolls on every purchase. Pypl [87] , paypal owner of venmo and braintree;  epayment processor of america’s futureSQ [67], square is the way small biz get paid by normal users, they still pay the visa/mastercard/amex toll

Theme : Previous favorites: Holding,  maybe  buy more. 

TDOC [66]: still room to grow, people don’t want to schedule appointments to meet their doctors anymore, teledoc appoint, get prescription. goes on section 1 tech growth cloud. 

ALGN [363]:  invisible braces, had good year so far, slowing down on growing, monster growth

MELI [327]:  latin amazon, they might be recovering, hovering around low 300s ready to jump up or down) , not quite sure what’s going with south america in chaos/recovery  

GRUB [110]: dominant player in food delivery world, people want to order restaurant food and watch netflix at home. 

SHOP [166]: shofiy’s got that tech cloud growth thing, bad financials great growth. 

NVDA [249]: data centers and people constantly buying gpus still,  still solid. can’t keep up with demand. 

FB  [207] : still makes ton of money, network effect, holding lot of FBBA [352]: boeing’s not going anywhere despite the trade war 

NFLX [395]: is the best online media tech company currently, it’s expensive stock but buy some netflix; remember it was expensive in the 200’s last year. 

AMZN [1813]: is the best, going to remain a top tech company for long time, quite possibly best FAANG

MSFT [105]: #2 cloud player, not going anywhere, not going to double anytime soon either. 

APPL [191]: same as msft essentially; not going anywhere, not going to double anytime soon either. 

Other safe buys (set it and forget it): 

Buy the vanguard ETF. Set it and forget thinking. Some people like bonds, it’s boring and won’t lose value and pays 2%+ dividend

Bonds: https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/BNDhttps://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/fees/bndx

For buy some Tech/growth etfs : covers most he big techs and visa + ma
https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VGT

https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/mgk

Last note: 

There are NO good cannabis/weed stocks after I looked around. It’s all garbage speculation. The closest to legit company is GWPH and they have questionable financials. 

I own almost every stock mentioned here plus more except gwph. Remember don’t put more than 7% of all your stock money into a single stock (even if it’s amzn).  BOND and Vanguard ETF are fine. 

I might turn this into a blog if you guys read this and think it’s good. 

Introducing stockpicks by chilmix

Stock picking is my hobby

Some people collect stamps I play stocks like fantasy football … I also play fantasy football.

Why do this?

  • Financial Investing is one a few things that any person can do without lot of tools (carpenter/mechanic) or lot of schooling (doctor/lawyer).
  • I‘m a data engineer by day. That means I move, crunch, and analyze data sets all day for work. Analyzing stocks is for fun and profits.

The reason I want to publish this is because it can help more people than my direct friends and relatives.

FAQ:

  • I want to keep score of my stock advice is look back to see how good/bad it was
  • I will post about some stocks that I own or sold and why it should go up or down
  • Anyone can comment and bounce ideas back to me.
  • I‘m not a financial advisor of any sort so content on this site is information of a general nature is not intended to and does not constitute legal advice or investment advice

I been managing my own money and of my relatives’ money since 2008. It all started when I put money into a 401k in back in 2005 and wondered what happened to half of it in 2008.